Rationale:

The escalation of the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, engulfing the Gulf countries and the wider Middle East, marks a structural turning point in the evolution of the international system. Beyond immediate military dynamics, this confrontation reflects deeper transformations: the erosion of multilateral governance and the progressive fragmentation of the global order, accelerating new forms of economic and geopolitical competition.

This webinar aims to unpack the underlying drivers of the conflict (casus belli & modus operandi), while situating it within broader strategic frameworks, including power projection doctrines, regional security architectures and intensifying global rivalries.

At the same time, the marginalization of the United Nations system and the weakening of international legal norms signal a deeper shift: the weakening of the post-World War II system as a credible framework for conflict regulation and economic stability.

The Gulf region, long structured around a web combining security guarantees, energy flows and financial attractiveness, has entered a phase of heightened instability. Its traditional pillars are being tested simultaneously, with direct implications for energy supply, maritime trade corridors, regional financial hubs and cross-border investments. Disruptions across these domains would not remain contained but would propagate rapidly across global value chains.

For businesses and investors, these developments are not abstract. They translate into increased exposure to geopolitical risk, disruptions to supply chains, heightened energy volatility and growing uncertainty around regulatory and operating environments. Anticipating these shifts is no longer optional, it is a prerequisite for maintaining operational continuity and ensuring strategic resilience in an increasingly fragmented world.

À Washington, l'ambassadrice du Liban, Nada Moawad, l'ambassadeur d'Israël aux États-Unis, Yechiel Leiter, et l'ambassadeur américain au Liban, Michel Issa, se sont rencontrés pour des discussions directes inédites depuis des décennies. Au Liban, la tension monte déjà, après des manifestations de partisans du Hezbollah et l'appel de son secrétaire général, Naïm Kassem, à faire annuler cette réunion. 

Quels sont les objectifs réels de ces pourparlers, quelles sont leurs chances d'aboutir, et quelles pourraient être leurs conséquences pour le Liban ?

L'Orient-Le-Joue a parlé avec Karim El Mufti, politologue et fondateur de GDI Conseil.
Date: 14 avril 2026